Trump’s Evolving Stance on Guns
What to expect in 2025 and beyond
Whenever a new administration takes over in Washington, it means potential changes to gun policy at the federal level. But in the current transition, those changes promise to be more significant than they have been in some time. While President Joe Biden passed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first major federal gun safety bill in nearly 30 years, and created the Office of Gun Violence Prevention, President Donald Trump shut the office down within 48 hours of taking office. So what else can we expect to see as his presidency unfolds? Let’s dig in.
Trump’s Record on Guns
While the GOP's official stance on gun rights is somewhat vague these days, Donald Trump has been much more outspoken, making strong promises to both his supporters and the NRA. This marks a change from his first term, which featured a mix of pro-gun actions and some limited restrictions. His rhetoric during the 2024 presidential campaign points to a more aggressively pro-gun agenda than in his first term.
Trump’s approach to gun safety during his first White House stint was a bit of a balancing act. On one hand, he took actions that were seen as favorable to the firearms industry, like appointing over 200 gun-friendly federal judges, cementing pro-gun interpretation firmly in the judicial branch. On the other hand, he took steps that angered gun rights activists, like banning bump stocks in 2017 after the Las Vegas shooting, where bump stocks were used to help kill more than 60 people and injure more than 400. The move was a striking contradiction to his long-standing alliance with the NRA.
In 2019, the deadly shootings in Dayton (9 casualties) and El Paso (23 casualties), occurring on the same weekend, sparked more calls for action on gun safety. In response, Trump appeared to voice support for bipartisan federal red flag legislation, stating, “We must make sure that those judged to pose a grave risk to public safety do not have access to firearms and that if they do, those firearms can be taken through rapid due process.” He later backtracked from this position, also canceling plans to release his administration’s proposals to curb gun violence.
The following year, Trump showed renewed support for gun vendors, allowing them to continue operation even as many businesses closed during government-mandated shutdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the course of his presidency, he also relaxed restrictions for gun vendors, halting a proposal requiring them to sell gun safety devices and reducing regulations on firearms exports, which helped lead to the proliferation of ghost guns.
Some other Trump actions on guns included signing a bill to revoke certain mental health background checks; refusing to back enhanced universal background check legislation, after initially expressing openness to it; and reducing funding for gun violence prevention programs. The administration also considered a plan to enable school districts to use federal education grants to arm teachers.
What’s Coming in Trump’s Second Term?
After Joe Biden took office, his administration introduced a range of stricter gun regulations, and rollbacks of these policies are expected to be a priority of the Trump Administration across the board. For example, Trump had promised to rescind Biden’s zero-tolerance policy for firearm sellers found violating ATF rules, even before the Biden Administration relaxed the policy, after a Texas gun store owner challenged the policy in court.
Trump also promised to reverse restrictions on stabilization devices and pistol braces, calling the restrictions an infringement on Second Amendment rights. These were outlawed for sale in most circumstances by the ATF in 2023 following reports that they were being used to create de facto rifle stocks, rather than for stabilization to make gun use easier for people with disabilities. But the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals beat him to it, striking down the rule in August 2024.
It was unclear whether Trump planned to undo his own bump stock ban. His claim during the 2024 campaign that he “did nothing” on gun control sparked speculation that he might reverse his position on the devices. Ultimately, he didn’t have to make the decision, as the Supreme Court overturned the ban in June 2024—a ruling Trump applauded.
Speaking at an NRA forum in Pennsylvania, Trump stated that “no one will lay a finger on your firearms.” He promised swift action once in office, declaring that rolling back Biden’s gun reforms would take place during his “very first week back in office, perhaps [his] first day.” That hasn’t happened as of this writing however.
Beyond reversals, Trump’s other verbal statements paint a picture of his planned gun policy, with a strong emphasis on active protection of gun ownership and sale. In statements critical of gun regulation during his speech at the NRA’s annual meeting in Dallas, Trump promised to replace ATF Director Steve Dettelbach, whom he called an "anti-gun fanatic," with someone more supportive of gun rights (Dettelbach resigned just days before Trump’s inauguration). This move aligns both with his broader push to reduce regulatory oversight, as well as with his claims that firearms dealers are unfairly targeted and penalized by the ATF for minor paperwork errors.
Among other potential priorities, Trump has expressed support for national reciprocity for concealed carry, which would require all states to recognize concealed carry permits granted in other states. Action on this policy is already taking place in the House of Representatives, where two representatives introduced the Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act (H.R. 38) in January.
In terms of school safety, Trump has expressed continued opposition to banning guns on school campuses, instead proposing measures such as stronger doors and windows, arming teachers and veterans as guards, and diverting "troublemaker" students to correctional facilities. In 2024, during a town hall with Univision, Trump was questioned about his gun control policies by parents of school shooting victims. He faced criticism for deflecting their questions by pointing to guns as necessary not only for security but “for entertainment.” The comment was widely panned by gun violence prevention groups.
All signs point to a second term in which Donald Trump focuses heavily on reducing gun regulations and cementing pro-gun policies. Specifically, enhanced legal protections for gun owners and reduced government oversight of the firearms industry will be priorities across the federal government. Given his track record of adjusting his policies to align with special interests and his base, it’s likely Trump will backtrack on even some of the more moderate positions he held in his own first term. For gun safety advocates, action to reduce gun deaths through increased regulation will, by necessity, shift to the states over the next four years. 97Percent will follow suit.
In the Courts
A conservative federal appeals court said last Thursday that a federal law banning the sale of handguns to 18- to 20-year-olds is unconstitutional, elevating a significant question about the Second Amendment’s reach in the wake of recent major Supreme Court rulings on gun rights.
It is the latest major ruling against an age-based firearm restriction and one that comes as the Supreme Court has been asked to weigh in on how the Second Amendment applies to older teens.
The new ruling from the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals pointed to the landmark 2022 Supreme Court ruling known as Bruen that established a historical test for assessing the constitutionality of gun restrictions. It also reviewed the legal challenge against the more recent decision by the Supreme Court that refined the Bruen test while upholding federal restrictions on gun possession for people accused of domestic abuse. —CNN
We say: We disagree with this decision. And our research shows that a majority of gun owners agree with us.
In the States
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is proposing a new “Second Amendment Summer” tax holiday. The proposed holiday would make guns, ammunition and firearm accessories tax-free. If approved by the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature, it would run from Memorial Day through Fourth of July.
“I think this is going to be wildly popular,” said DeSantis.
According to DeSantis’ budget proposal, the Second Amendment Summer Holiday could save Floridians upwards of $8 million. Meanwhile, Florida Democrats are questioning if there’s any need for the holiday.
“We anticipate having less revenue in the coming years,” said Delray Beach Democratic Rep. Kelly Skidmore. “I think we have to be very careful about those tax incentives.” —Spectrum News
We say: This is a clever way to battle the “Trump slump” in firearm sales, but more guns can mean more potential for violence. Thankfully, Florida is a red flag law state.
On the Hill
The Stop Arming Cartels Act aims to address the sale and trafficking of firearms from the United States to transnational criminal organizations abroad.
It has been introduced by Congressman Joaquin Castro (TX-20), Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Congresswoman Veronica Escobar (TX-16), Congressman Maxwell Frost (FL-10), and Senator Dick Durbin (IL), Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
On Monday, Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said that the United States is committed to working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico, a problem that greatly afflicts the country. During a call with President Donald Trump, Sheinbaum raised the issue of arms trafficking from the United States to Mexico and with which the cartels have the power to respond, for which the U.S. president promised to attack this aspect. —Rio Grande Guardian
We say: At the federal level, expect to see gun legislation limited to this type over the next two to four years, as gun rights protection for U.S. citizens takes precedence over gun safety regulation.
On the value of Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs), commonly known as red flag laws:
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